Are Iran And Azerbaijan Allies? Unpacking A Complex Geopolitical Relationship
The question of whether Iran and Azerbaijan are allies is often raised in discussions about Middle Eastern and Caucasian geopolitics, but the reality is far from a simple 'yes'. In fact, despite sharing a long border and some cultural ties, the relationship between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Republic of Azerbaijan is characterized by deep-seated tensions, strategic divergences, and mutual suspicions. This article delves into the intricate dynamics that define the relationship between these two nations, exploring the historical grievances, geopolitical rivalries, and differing alliances that prevent them from being true allies, and instead position them as wary neighbors navigating a complex regional landscape.
Far from being allies, the ties between Tehran and Baku have frequently been described as fraught, marked by periods of intense diplomatic friction and underlying mistrust. Understanding this complex dynamic requires a deep dive into their historical interactions, their differing national interests, and the broader regional power plays that continually shape their interactions.
Table of Contents
- A Definitive "No": The Current State of Relations
- Understanding the Roots of Discord: Why the Poor Relationship?
- The Armenia Factor: A Wedge in Relations
- The Ethnic Dimension: Iran's Azeri Population
- Competing Regional Influences and External Alliances
- Iran's Shifting Diplomacy: A Desire for Rapprochement?
- The Future Outlook: Navigating Persistent Tensions
A Definitive "No": The Current State of Relations
The straightforward answer to the question "Are Iran and Azerbaijan allies?" is a resounding no. This sentiment has been explicitly articulated by high-ranking officials from both sides, underscoring the significant chasm that exists between the two nations. In May 2023, Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev offered a stark assessment, describing relations between the two countries as "at the lowest level ever." This frank admission from a head of state leaves little room for ambiguity regarding the nature of their bilateral ties. The relationship is not merely strained; it is, by official accounts, at a historical nadir.
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Further emphasizing this point, a direct quote from an unnamed official or analyst reinforces the core reality: "We are not allies." This statement, while brief, encapsulates the fundamental lack of strategic alignment and mutual trust that would define a true alliance. While it is acknowledged that "we have some differences, and we have some mutual interests," these shared interests are evidently insufficient to bridge the deep divides that plague their interactions. The sheer length of their shared 700km border means that despite their differences, a degree of interaction is inevitable, yet this proximity has frequently been a source of tension rather than cohesion.
The consistent reporting of "tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan... ramping up in recent weeks" and the observation that "these facts indicate that relations between Azerbaijan Republic and Iran have remained tense" paint a picture of an enduring state of friction. This tension is not a fleeting phenomenon but a persistent feature of their relationship, shaped by a complex interplay of historical grievances, geopolitical competition, and differing national priorities. The absence of a robust, cooperative framework, coupled with frequent diplomatic spats and underlying suspicions, firmly positions Iran and Azerbaijan as anything but allies in the traditional sense.
Understanding the Roots of Discord: Why the Poor Relationship?
To truly grasp why the relationship between Azerbaijan and Iran is so poor, one must delve into the multifaceted issues that fuel their mutual distrust and strategic competition. The question, "What is the cause of the poor relationship between Azerbaijan and Iran?" opens a Pandora's box of historical, geopolitical, and internal factors that continuously prevent any meaningful rapprochement. From diverging foreign policy objectives to direct diplomatic confrontations, the reasons are deeply entrenched and complex.
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Geopolitical Divergence and Proxy Networks
A primary driver of the strained relationship lies in Iran's distinct geopolitical strategy, which often clashes with Azerbaijan's regional alignments. Iran has demonstrably "invested heavily in a network of proxy allies across the Middle East." This extensive network includes formidable non-state actors such as "Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and the Islamic Resistance in" Iraq. More specifically, "Iran’s key allies include Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthi movement in Yemen, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip, and some militias in Iraq including the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF)." This strategy of supporting proxy groups allows Iran to project influence without direct military intervention, as "Tabaar pointed out that, despite its assertive regional influence, Iran has avoided intervening directly in countries in the region, often opting to work through local allies and proxies instead."
This approach, while effective for Iran's regional ambitions, creates significant unease for Azerbaijan, which views such proxy activities as potentially destabilizing and a threat to its own sovereignty and secular identity. Azerbaijan, a predominantly Shia Muslim nation, is wary of Iran's efforts to export its Islamic revolutionary ideology, fearing it could ignite religious extremism within its borders. The ideological clash between Iran's theocratic system and Azerbaijan's secular state forms a fundamental ideological divergence, further compounded by Iran's perceived attempts to cultivate influence among Azerbaijan's religious communities.
Border Tensions and Diplomatic Incidents
Beyond ideological differences, concrete diplomatic incidents and border-related issues have repeatedly exacerbated tensions. One significant event that highlighted the depth of the disagreement was the attack on Azerbaijan's embassy in Tehran. "Iran and Azerbaijan disagree on whether Friday’s attack on the Azeri embassy in Tehran constituted a ‘terrorist act’," a dispute that surfaced after the incident which was "Published on 29 Jan 2023." This disagreement over the nature of the attack – whether it was a criminal act or an act of terror – reflects a profound lack of shared understanding and trust at the highest diplomatic levels. For Azerbaijan, the refusal to label the attack as terrorism likely signifies a perceived lack of empathy or even complicity from the Iranian side, intensifying feelings of betrayal and insecurity.
Another persistent point of contention revolves around the issue of extradition. "Despite the official appeals of Azerbaijan, Iran refused to return Mahir Javadov," a figure sought by Baku. Such refusals, particularly concerning individuals accused of crimes or political offenses, are typical hallmarks of strained interstate relations. They underscore Iran's unwillingness to fully cooperate with Azerbaijan's judicial requests, suggesting a deeper political motivation or a protective stance towards individuals who might be seen as useful assets. These specific incidents, rather than being isolated events, are symptomatic of a broader pattern of mistrust and a reluctance to engage in full, transparent cooperation, solidifying the perception that Iran and Azerbaijan are not allies.
The Armenia Factor: A Wedge in Relations
One of the most significant and enduring wedges driving a deep divide between Iran and Azerbaijan is their respective relationships with Armenia. While Azerbaijan has been locked in a protracted conflict with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh, Iran has cultivated surprisingly close ties with Yerevan. "On paper, the Islamic Republic of Iran and Armenia, one of the oldest Christian communities in the world, make for unusual close allies," given Iran's Islamic revolutionary identity and Armenia's Christian heritage. However, this alliance is a strategic one, born out of geopolitical necessity and shared concerns, rather than ideological alignment.
For many Armenians, Iran is indeed considered an ally, primarily because "they think Iran supports Armenia against Azerbaijan and Turkey." This perception is not unfounded. Iran's support for Armenia is largely pragmatic, driven by its own strategic interests in the South Caucasus. "The fact is that Iran 'supports' Armenia because they see Azerbaijan and Turkey's cooperation as a threat to their influence" in the region. A strong Azerbaijan, particularly one closely aligned with Turkey – a regional rival with pan-Turkic ambitions that could potentially stir separatist sentiments among Iran's own large Azeri population – is viewed with deep suspicion by Tehran.
The geographical proximity further underscores this strategic alignment. "Midway along Armenia’s narrow border with Iran, with Azerbaijan roughly 10 miles" away, Iran maintains a vital land connection to Armenia, bypassing Turkey and Azerbaijan. This corridor is crucial for Iran's trade and regional connectivity. By "using its current strength to enforce its goals in its relations with Armenia," Iran effectively leverages its influence to maintain a strategic balance in the Caucasus, ensuring that Azerbaijan and Turkey do not gain overwhelming dominance. This geopolitical calculus directly puts Iran at odds with Azerbaijan's core national interests and territorial integrity, making the prospect of Iran and Azerbaijan being allies virtually impossible while the Armenia issue remains unresolved and strategically vital for Tehran.
The Ethnic Dimension: Iran's Azeri Population
A crucial, yet often overlooked, factor contributing to the tension between Iran and Azerbaijan is the significant ethnic Azeri population residing within Iran's borders. Estimates suggest that "up to 18 million Iranians are ethnic Azeris," making them the largest ethnic minority in the Islamic Republic. This demographic reality creates a unique and sensitive dynamic, fostering mutual fears and suspicions between the two states. While "Azerbaijan fears Iranian Islamist influence," particularly the export of revolutionary ideology that could undermine its secular state, "Iran fears Azerbaijan, too, as up to 18 million Iranians are ethnic Azeris."
Tehran's apprehension stems from the potential for irredentist sentiments or calls for greater autonomy among its Azeri population, possibly fueled or encouraged by Baku. The existence of a strong, independent Azerbaijan, especially one that emphasizes its Turkic identity and cultivates close ties with Turkey, could theoretically inspire nationalist movements within Iran's own Azeri-populated provinces. "They also fear their own Azeri population and the 'possibility' of the Azeri population" becoming a source of internal instability or a tool for external manipulation. This fear is not entirely unfounded; historical precedents of ethnic movements in the region contribute to Tehran's vigilance.
From Iran's perspective, Azerbaijan's close relationship with Turkey, a rival power, and its growing ties with Israel, an arch-enemy of Iran, are viewed through the lens of potential threats to its internal cohesion. Any perceived attempts by Baku to foster pan-Turkic sentiment or to leverage the shared ethnic heritage to undermine Iranian sovereignty are met with strong countermeasures and diplomatic rebukes. This internal demographic reality means that Iran views its northwestern neighbor with a degree of suspicion that transcends typical interstate relations, adding a layer of existential concern to the question of whether Iran and Azerbaijan are allies.
Competing Regional Influences and External Alliances
The geopolitical landscape surrounding Iran and Azerbaijan is a complex web of alliances and rivalries, where each nation's external partnerships directly impact their bilateral relationship. Far from being allies, both countries are active players in a regional power struggle, constantly seeking to leverage their alliances to enhance their own security and influence, often at the expense of the other.
Azerbaijan's Strategic Partnerships
Azerbaijan has strategically diversified its alliances, fostering strong ties with powers that are often at odds with Iran. Key among these are Türkiye (Turkey) and Israel. Baku is adept at "capitalizing on and handling ties with both of its allies, Türkiye and Israel, at the same time, despite growing tensions between them in the Middle East." This balancing act highlights Azerbaijan's pragmatic foreign policy, prioritizing its national interests over ideological alignments. Türkiye provides a strong cultural and military ally, reinforcing Azerbaijan's Turkic identity and providing a counterbalance to Russian and Iranian influence in the Caucasus. Israel, on the other hand, is a crucial partner for military technology and intelligence, particularly given its own adversarial relationship with Iran.
This close relationship with Israel is a significant point of contention for Tehran, which views Israel as an existential threat. The prospect of "if an open war breaks out between Israel and Iran, or if Iran begins to view countries in the region as ‘Israeli allies’ and targets them, Azerbaijan may come under significant pressure." This statement encapsulates the precarious position Azerbaijan finds itself in, caught between its strategic partners and a powerful, suspicious neighbor. Furthermore, regional events, such as the conflict in Gaza, can also ripple through these alliances. "But pressure on Baku from Turkey over Gaza might soon disrupt the relationship Turkey's President Recep" Tayyip Erdoğan's government exerts, indicating how broader Middle Eastern dynamics can indirectly impact Azerbaijan's strategic calculations and its delicate balance with Iran.
The Russia-Iran-Armenia Axis
In stark contrast to Azerbaijan's Western and Turkic-leaning alliances, Iran has solidified a strategic partnership with Russia, often in conjunction with Armenia. "Since 2019, their relationship has drastically improved and Russia and Iran are now strategic allies and form an axis in the Caucasus alongside Armenia." This emerging axis represents a formidable geopolitical bloc, directly challenging Azerbaijan's regional aspirations and security. The deepening military and economic cooperation between Moscow and Tehran is evident in their diplomatic presence, with "Iran has its embassy in Moscow and consulate generals in the cities of Kazan and Astrakhan," and "Russia has its embassy in Tehran, and consulate generals in the cities of Rasht and Isfahan," facilitating robust bilateral engagement.
This alliance, however, is not without its nuances. As independent Middle East specialist Ruslan Suleymanov, based in Baku, Azerbaijan, noted, "While Russia might be sympathetic to Iran, the extent of their relationship should not be overstated." This suggests that while they are strategic partners, their interests may not always perfectly align, leaving room for complex maneuvering. Nevertheless, the formation of this axis fundamentally alters the power dynamics in the South Caucasus, with Azerbaijan finding itself "leveraging its growing regional power in its perilous relations with neighbours, Russia and Iran." This phrase highlights Azerbaijan's challenging position, needing to navigate the complex and often hostile intentions of two powerful neighbors who are increasingly aligned against its interests. The existence of this Russia-Iran-Armenia axis is a direct impediment to any notion of Iran and Azerbaijan being allies, as it solidifies a regional configuration that is inherently adversarial to Baku.
Iran's Shifting Diplomacy: A Desire for Rapprochement?
Despite the deep-seated tensions and clear strategic divergences, there have been indications that "Iran has been seeking to improve its ties with Azerbaijan." This desire for rapprochement from Tehran's side might seem counterintuitive given the recent history of strained relations, but it stems from a pragmatic assessment of its own regional security and influence. Iran's relations with its "northwestern neighbor Azerbaijan have devolved into scolding and heated rhetoric as Tehran objects to outside influence from regional rivals in what it considers its backyard." The presence of strong Israeli and Turkish influence in Azerbaijan, particularly along Iran's northern border, is a source of significant concern for Tehran.
From Iran's perspective, a perpetually hostile Azerbaijan, especially one hosting foreign military or intelligence assets, represents a direct threat to its national security. Therefore, a strategic imperative for Iran is to mitigate this perceived threat, either through intimidation or, if possible, through diplomatic engagement. Improving ties, even superficially, could serve to reduce the perceived "outside influence" and prevent Azerbaijan from becoming a staging ground for hostile activities against Iran. This outreach, however, often comes across as coercive or conditional, rather than a genuine desire for a partnership of equals.
The challenge for Iran in pursuing this rapprochement lies in its inability or unwillingness to address Azerbaijan's core grievances, such as the support for Armenia or the ideological differences. Any Iranian overtures are often viewed with skepticism by Baku, given the history of mistrust and the stark contrasts in their geopolitical alignments. While Iran may express a desire to improve relations, the fundamental obstacles that prevent Iran and Azerbaijan from being allies remain largely unaddressed, making any significant shift towards genuine partnership unlikely without a fundamental re-evaluation of their respective regional strategies.
The Future Outlook: Navigating Persistent Tensions
The relationship between Iran and Azerbaijan is undeniably complex, marked by a deep chasm rather than the bridges of alliance. The current state of affairs, characterized by mutual suspicion, geopolitical competition, and differing strategic priorities, suggests that the two nations are unlikely to become allies in the foreseeable future. The numerous points of contention, from the Armenia factor and the delicate ethnic balance within Iran to Azerbaijan's robust ties with Israel and Turkey, create a persistent environment of tension. President Aliyev's blunt assessment of relations being at their "lowest level ever" in May 2023 serves as a potent reminder of this reality.
Looking ahead, the dynamics are likely to remain fraught. Iran's continued reliance on proxy networks and its strategic alliance with Russia and Armenia will inevitably clash with Azerbaijan's efforts to solidify its position as a regional power with strong Western and Turkic ties. The ethnic Azeri population in Iran will continue to be a sensitive issue, viewed by Tehran as a potential vulnerability and by Baku as a cultural link. Diplomatic incidents, such as the embassy attack, will
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