Beyond Rivalry: Are Iran And Saudi Arabia Truly At War?

Braxton Waelchi DVM 20 Jun 2025

The geopolitical landscape of the Middle East is a complex tapestry woven with threads of history, religion, economics, and shifting alliances. At its heart lies the enduring rivalry between two regional powerhouses: Iran and Saudi Arabia. For decades, the question of "Are Iran and Saudi Arabia at war?" has loomed large, often answered with a cautious "not directly." While direct military confrontation between the two nations has largely been avoided, their competition has fueled numerous proxy conflicts, creating a volatile environment across the region. Understanding the nuances of this relationship is crucial for anyone seeking to comprehend the Middle East's future trajectory.

This article delves into the multifaceted dynamics between Tehran and Riyadh, exploring their historical animosities, the flashpoints that have brought them to the brink, and the recent diplomatic shifts that suggest a potential, albeit fragile, path towards de-escalation. We will examine how external factors, from global powers like the United States, Russia, and China, to regional conflicts such as the Gaza War and the civil war in Yemen, have shaped their interactions. By analyzing their motivations and strategic calculations, we can better grasp whether these two giants are on a collision course or slowly, cautiously, finding common ground.

Historical Roots of a Deep-Seated Rivalry
Proxy Wars: The Battlegrounds of Influence
The Yemen Conflict: A Defining Proxy War
Shifting Geopolitics: From Confrontation to Détente
The Gaza War and Its Ripple Effects: A New Test
The Role of External Actors: US, Russia, and China
Saudi Arabia's Calculated Stance Amidst Regional Tensions
Future Outlook: Navigating a Path Towards Stability?

Historical Roots of a Deep-Seated Rivalry

The rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia is not a recent phenomenon; it is deeply embedded in their respective national identities, historical trajectories, and interpretations of Islam. Historically, Iran, a Shiite Islamic Republic, and Saudi Arabia, a Sunni absolute monarchy and the custodian of Islam's holiest sites, have been regional rivals, divided by sectarian, political, and geopolitical differences. This fundamental schism has colored their interactions for decades, often manifesting in a zero-sum game for regional dominance. For a significant period, particularly after the Cold War, Iran and Saudi Arabia continued to support different groups and organizations along sectarian lines, such as in Afghanistan. This approach, where each nation sought to expand its influence by backing ideologically aligned factions, created a network of proxy relationships that often spiraled into conflict. The policies of mutual suspicion and indirect confrontation endured for approximately 20 years, shaping the regional security architecture. However, pivotal events like the 9/11 attacks on the United States in 2001—where 15 of the 19 hijackers were Saudi nationals—and the deadly Al Qaeda bombings in Riyadh in 2003, forced a course correction for Saudi Arabia. These incidents underscored the dangers of unchecked extremism and the need for a more nuanced foreign policy, even as the underlying rivalry with Iran persisted. The question of "Are Iran and Saudi Arabia at war?" in this context often referred to a cold war, fought through proxies and ideological battles rather than direct military engagement.

Proxy Wars: The Battlegrounds of Influence

While a direct, full-scale war between Iran and Saudi Arabia has been largely averted, the two nations have frequently engaged in proxy conflicts across the Middle East. These conflicts serve as arenas where each country can project power, undermine the other's influence, and protect its strategic interests without incurring the full costs and risks of direct military confrontation. From Lebanon and Syria to Iraq and Yemen, the fingerprints of both Tehran and Riyadh can be found in the complex web of local and regional disputes.

Iraq and Syria: Key Flashpoints

Following the 2003 invasion of Iraq, the power vacuum created an opportunity for both Iran and Saudi Arabia to exert influence. Iran, with its strong ties to Iraqi Shiite factions, significantly expanded its footprint, much to Saudi Arabia's dismay. Similarly, the Syrian civil war, which began in 2011, became another major proxy battleground. Iran staunchly supported the Assad regime, providing military and financial aid, while Saudi Arabia, alongside other Gulf states, backed various Sunni opposition groups. This prolonged conflict exacerbated sectarian tensions and demonstrated the depth of the regional power struggle. The devastation wrought in these nations underscored the high human cost of the indirect confrontation between these two regional giants.

Lebanon, Bahrain, and Beyond

The proxy rivalry extends beyond the major battlefields. In Lebanon, Iran's support for Hezbollah has long been a point of contention for Saudi Arabia, which views the Shiite militant group as a direct threat to regional stability and a tool of Iranian expansion. Bahrain, with its Sunni monarchy ruling a Shiite majority population, has also been a flashpoint, with Saudi Arabia intervening to support the government against popular uprisings, which it often attributes to Iranian instigation. These smaller, yet significant, theaters of conflict continuously reinforce the perception that while not directly at war, Iran and Saudi Arabia are engaged in a pervasive, region-wide struggle for dominance.

The Yemen Conflict: A Defining Proxy War

Perhaps the most direct and devastating manifestation of the Iran-Saudi rivalry in recent years has been the civil war in Yemen. When the civil war in Yemen began in 2015, Saudi Arabia backed its internationally recognized government and targeted Houthi rebel strongholds. The Houthis, a Zaydi Shiite group, are aligned with Iran, receiving significant support in terms of training, arms, and strategic guidance. This conflict quickly escalated into a full-blown proxy war, with Saudi Arabia leading a coalition of Arab states against the Houthi movement. In June 2015, Saudi Arabia implemented a naval blockade to prevent Iran from supplying the Houthis. In response, Iran dispatched a naval convoy, raising the risk of military escalation between the two powers. The war in Yemen has been catastrophic, leading to one of the world's worst humanitarian crises. For Saudi Arabia, the war was a critical effort to secure its southern border and prevent the establishment of a hostile, Iran-aligned entity on its doorstep. Saudi Arabia viewed the détente, which would later come, as a way to deter Houthi attacks on its borders and to help quickly bring an end to the war in Yemen, highlighting the deep desire to extricate itself from the costly conflict. The intensity of the fighting, the cross-border missile and drone attacks, and the direct accusations of Iranian involvement in Houthi operations have led many observers to question whether this constitutes a de facto war between Iran and Saudi Arabia, even if not officially declared. The projectiles launched from Yemen were later traced to Iran, and despite its stringent denials, the desire to avoid a repeat of the incident prompted a new and sustained effort by Saudi Arabia and the other Arab states to find a diplomatic solution.

Shifting Geopolitics: From Confrontation to Détente

Despite the long history of animosity and proxy conflicts, the past few years have witnessed a significant shift in the relationship between Iran and Saudi Arabia, moving from overt confrontation towards a cautious détente. A year after restoring diplomatic ties, Saudi Arabia and Iran still experience tensions, but the restoration itself marked a pivotal moment. This shift can be attributed to several factors, including a desire by both sides to de-escalate regional tensions, focus on domestic priorities, and adapt to a changing global order. The rapprochement, largely brokered by China in March 2023, was a surprising development that caught many by surprise. For Saudi Arabia, the motivation was clear: to reduce regional instability, particularly the threat of Houthi attacks, and to focus on its ambitious Vision 2030 economic transformation plan. For Iran, emerging from years of international sanctions and domestic challenges, a reduction in regional tensions could offer much-needed breathing room. This détente, however, is fragile. Today, though, the Saudis are worried about antagonizing their regional neighbor, lest Iran blame the kingdom for egging on the war and decide to attack it (as it did in 2019). This lingering apprehension underscores the deep-seated mistrust that still pervades the relationship, even amidst diplomatic overtures. The incident in 2019, where projectiles traced to Iran struck Saudi oil facilities, serves as a stark reminder of the potential for rapid escalation.

The Gaza War and Its Ripple Effects: A New Test

The eruption of the Gaza War in October 2023 and the subsequent escalation between Israel and Iran have presented a fresh and significant test for the nascent détente between Saudi Arabia and Iran. This study explores the evolving geopolitical dynamics between Saudi Arabia and Iran following the Gaza War and the subsequent escalation between Israel and Iran. The conflict has reshaped regional priorities and forced countries to reassess their alliances and strategies. In a remarkable display of regional solidarity against escalation, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Oman, and Qatar are engaged in frantic efforts at diplomacy to end the conflict between Iran and Israel and ensure peace and stability in the wider region. This collective diplomatic push highlights a shared desire among Gulf states to prevent a wider conflagration that could destabilize their economies and societies. In a significant move, Saudi Arabia on Friday condemned Israel’s strikes on Iran that targeted its nuclear facilities, ballistic missile factories, and military commanders. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia expressed its strong condemnation and denunciation of the blatant Israeli aggressions against the brotherly Islamic Republic of Iran, which undermine regional stability. This statement, coming from a historical rival, speaks volumes about Saudi Arabia's current priorities: regional stability above all else, even if it means publicly siding with Iran against Israel in a specific context. Israel Iran war live updates also showed that Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan also spoke to Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian in recent days, demonstrating direct high-level communication aimed at de-escalation.

The Role of External Actors: US, Russia, and China

The relationship between Iran and Saudi Arabia is not solely an internal regional affair; it is heavily influenced by the involvement of global powers. The paper investigates the motivations behind each country’s current foreign policies and its relations with foreign actors such as the United States, Russia, and China. These external players often have their own strategic interests in the Middle East, which can either exacerbate or mitigate the tensions between Tehran and Riyadh.

The United States' Influence

Traditionally, the United States has been a staunch ally of Saudi Arabia and a primary antagonist of Iran. This alignment has historically emboldened Saudi Arabia in its regional rivalry. However, recent shifts in U.S. foreign policy, including a perceived pivot away from the Middle East and a desire to reduce its military footprint, have prompted Saudi Arabia to diversify its alliances and seek de-escalation with Iran. An Arab source told i24news on Tuesday that Israeli action in Iran is significantly advancing an agreement for the establishment of relations with Saudi Arabia, although this should take some time. This suggests that even actions by U.S. allies like Israel can have complex, indirect effects on Saudi-Iran relations, potentially pushing Saudi Arabia towards normalization with Israel as a hedge, or even towards a more independent regional foreign policy. Saudi Arabia, along with Egypt, is playing a key role in planning a ceasefire agreement to bring the US, Israel, and Palestine on the same page, indicating a broader Saudi ambition to mediate and shape regional outcomes, rather than just reacting to external pressures.

Russia and China's Growing Roles

The increasing involvement of Russia and China in the Middle East has added new layers to the regional power dynamics. China's successful mediation of the Iran-Saudi rapprochement highlighted its growing diplomatic clout and its interest in regional stability for economic reasons. Russia, a key ally of Iran in Syria, also maintains strong ties with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states. The UAE president discussed the conflict with Russian President Vladimir Putin through a telephonic conversation, who offered to mediate. This demonstrates Russia's desire to play a constructive role, positioning itself as a potential mediator rather than solely an instigator of conflict. The presence of these alternative power brokers offers both Iran and Saudi Arabia more options and potentially reduces their reliance on traditional Western allies, further complicating the question of "Are Iran and Saudi Arabia at war?" by introducing new diplomatic avenues.

Saudi Arabia's Calculated Stance Amidst Regional Tensions

Saudi Arabia’s response to the recent regional escalations, particularly the Israel-Iran tensions, may best illustrate the region’s complex and shifting allegiances. Despite being historically described as Iran’s regional rival, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has demonstrated a pragmatic approach. The kingdom was the first Arab nation to speak out against the Israeli attacks on Iran, stating its strong condemnation and denunciation. This move is not merely symbolic; it reflects a carefully calculated strategy to safeguard Saudi Arabia's national interests and promote regional stability. The Saudis understand that a direct conflict between Iran and Israel, or a broader regional war, would have devastating consequences for their economic development plans and overall security. The specter of past attacks, like the 2019 drone and missile strikes on its oil facilities (which appeared to be the most significant attack Iran has faced since its 1980s war with Iraq, with projectiles later traced to Iran), serves as a potent reminder of the kingdom's vulnerability. Therefore, actively condemning actions that could escalate tensions, even if perpetrated by a potential future ally like Israel, aligns with Saudi Arabia's overarching goal of de-escalation. This stance underscores that while the rivalry with Iran persists, the immediate priority for Riyadh is to avoid being drawn into a direct conflict or becoming a target in a wider regional conflagration. It's a strategic pivot from aggressive containment to cautious engagement, recognizing that regional stability is a shared interest, even among rivals.

Future Outlook: Navigating a Path Towards Stability?

Looking ahead to 2025 and beyond, the relationship between Iran and Saudi Arabia remains a critical determinant of Middle Eastern stability. In Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Saudi Arabia are led by starkly different men with profoundly different plans, which inherently creates friction. However, the recent diplomatic overtures and the shared desire to avoid a wider regional conflict suggest a potential, albeit challenging, path towards a more stable future. The immediate aftermath of the Gaza War and the Israel-Iran escalation has shown a surprising degree of convergence in the Gulf states' desire for de-escalation. The frantic diplomatic efforts by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Oman, and Qatar to end the conflict between Iran and Israel and ensure peace and stability in the wider region are indicative of a collective recognition that continued instability serves no one's long-term interests. While a year after restoring diplomatic ties, Saudi Arabia and Iran still experience tensions, the channels of communication remain open, and the willingness to engage in dialogue, even indirectly, persists. The question "Are Iran and Saudi Arabia at war?" might never be answered with a simple "yes" or "no" as long as their rivalry continues to play out through proxies and ideological battles. However, the recent shift towards détente, driven by pragmatic considerations and a shared aversion to widespread conflict, offers a glimmer of hope. If Saudi Arabia chooses to support Iran in de-escalating tensions, it could do so in several strategic ways, primarily through continued diplomatic engagement and by leveraging its influence to prevent regional actors from igniting new flashpoints. The Institute for the Study of War and other geopolitical think tanks will undoubtedly continue to monitor this evolving relationship closely. The future of the Middle East hinges significantly on whether these two regional giants can transform their historical rivalry into a more constructive, or at least less destructive, coexistence.

Conclusion

The question of "Are Iran and Saudi Arabia at war?" is not easily answered with a simple yes or no. While they have avoided direct military confrontation, their historical rivalry, fueled by sectarian, political, and geopolitical differences, has manifested in numerous devastating proxy wars across the Middle East. From the battlefields of Yemen, Iraq, and Syria to the broader struggle for influence, their competition has deeply impacted regional stability. However, recent diplomatic shifts, particularly the China-brokered rapprochement and the collective efforts to de-escalate tensions following the Gaza War and Israel-Iran escalation, indicate a pragmatic turn. Both nations, along with other regional players, recognize the severe costs of continued instability and are increasingly prioritizing economic development and domestic concerns. The involvement of global powers like the US, Russia, and China further complicates and influences this dynamic, sometimes fostering de-escalation, other times inadvertently exacerbating tensions. Ultimately, while deep-seated mistrust and differing strategic visions persist, the immediate future suggests a cautious movement towards managing, rather than escalating, their rivalry. The focus appears to be on preventing a direct, large-scale conflict that would devastate the region. The path ahead remains fraught with challenges, but the recent diplomatic engagements offer a fragile hope for a more stable Middle East. What are your thoughts on the evolving relationship between Iran and Saudi Arabia? Do you believe their détente will hold, or are further escalations inevitable? Share your insights in the comments below, and explore our other articles on Middle Eastern geopolitics for more in-depth analysis.

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