Azerbaijan, Israel, Iran: A Geopolitical Chessboard In The Caucasus

In the intricate tapestry of Middle Eastern and Eurasian geopolitics, the relationship between Azerbaijan, Israel, and Iran stands out as a complex and often volatile dynamic. This strategic triangle, defined by shifting alliances, historical grievances, and competing interests, plays a crucial role in shaping regional stability and international power balances. From energy corridors to security concerns, the interplay between Baku, Tel Aviv, and Tehran is a subject of intense scrutiny, with implications far beyond their immediate borders.

The strategic importance of Azerbaijan, nestled between Russia, Iran, and Turkey, cannot be overstated. Its rich energy resources and geographical position make it a coveted partner and a potential flashpoint. For Israel, Azerbaijan represents a vital component in its broader regional strategy, particularly concerning its long-standing rivalry with Iran. Conversely, Iran views the deepening ties between its northern neighbor and its arch-nemesis with growing apprehension, leading to a delicate dance of diplomacy, deterrence, and occasional confrontation.

The Strategic Triangle: Azerbaijan, Israel, Iran

The relationship between **Azerbaijan, Israel, and Iran** is inherently triangular, with each nation's actions profoundly influencing the others. At its core, this dynamic is shaped by Israel's strategic imperative to counter Iran's regional influence and nuclear ambitions, and Azerbaijan's pragmatic pursuit of national security and economic development. Iran, on the other hand, views the burgeoning ties between Baku and Tel Aviv as a direct threat to its national security, particularly given the historical and cultural links to its own Azeri-speaking population in northern Iran. This complex web of alliances and rivalries creates a precarious balance, where any misstep could have far-reaching consequences for the entire South Caucasus and beyond. The very existence of this strong bond between Azerbaijan and Israel is a constant source of friction with Tehran, which sees it as an encirclement strategy.

Israel's Geopolitical Calculus: Countering Iran

For Israel, the relationship with Azerbaijan is a cornerstone of its "peripheral doctrine," a long-standing foreign policy strategy aimed at forging alliances with non-Arab, non-Persian states on the periphery of the Middle East to counter hostile Arab or Persian powers. When, in the early 1990s, Israel defined Iran as its main threat, it sought ties with Azerbaijan as a counter. This approach has proven highly effective, providing Israel with strategic depth and intelligence-gathering capabilities in a region critical to its security interests. The geographical proximity of Azerbaijan to Iran's northern borders is a significant factor, offering potential strategic advantages in monitoring Iranian activities and, hypothetically, in scenarios requiring more direct action. Efraim Halevy, the former head of the Israeli Mossad, once stated that in its current campaign to pummel Iran and its weapons programs, Israel is likely counting on Azerbaijan’s moral rather than military support. This highlights the nuanced nature of their cooperation, which extends beyond overt military alliances to include intelligence sharing and diplomatic backing. ### Weapons Sales and Strategic Ties A key pillar of the Israel-Azerbaijan relationship is military cooperation. Israel is a leading foreign provider of weapons to Azerbaijan, equipping its armed forces with advanced drones, missile systems, and other sophisticated military technology. This flow of weaponry has significantly bolstered Azerbaijan's military capabilities, particularly during its conflict with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh. The benefits for Baku are clear: access to cutting-edge defense technology that enhances its security posture. For Israel, these sales are not merely commercial transactions; they are a strategic investment, strengthening a crucial regional partner and maintaining influence in a vital geopolitical zone. This military nexus is precisely what raises alarm bells in Tehran, as it explores the threats posed to both Armenia and Iran by Israel’s military cooperation with Baku and examines the broader implications for regional stability. The concern is that these weapons could be used not just for Azerbaijan's defense, but potentially to facilitate Israeli operations against Iran. ### The "Peripheral Doctrine" The "peripheral doctrine" is more than just military sales; it encompasses a broader strategic alignment. It involves intelligence cooperation, diplomatic coordination, and a shared understanding of regional threats, particularly from Iran. The idea is to create a network of friendly states that can collectively exert pressure on adversaries. In the context of **Azerbaijan, Israel, and Iran**, this doctrine positions Azerbaijan as a crucial node in Israel's efforts to contain Iranian influence. The strategic depth provided by Azerbaijan could potentially help Israel concerning issues with refueling, reconnaissance, and rescuing crews, and could make an attack more feasible, should such an extreme scenario ever arise. This speculative but often discussed possibility underscores the high stakes involved in the relationship and why Iran views it with such intense suspicion.

Azerbaijan's Balancing Act: Benefits and Risks

Azerbaijan's foreign policy is a delicate balancing act, navigating its relationships with powerful neighbors like Russia and Iran, while simultaneously forging strong ties with Turkey, Israel, and Western nations. This pragmatic approach is driven by its national interests: securing its borders, developing its economy, and asserting its sovereignty. Baku has benefited greatly from that relationship with Israel, gaining access to advanced technology, investment, and diplomatic support on the international stage. The economic benefits are also substantial, with significant trade and energy cooperation. ### Economic and Security Gains The partnership with Israel has brought tangible economic and security gains for Azerbaijan. Beyond military hardware, Israeli expertise in agriculture, water management, and technology has contributed to Azerbaijan's development. The security aspect is paramount; Israel's intelligence capabilities and counter-terrorism experience are valuable assets for Azerbaijan, which faces its own set of regional security challenges. This multifaceted cooperation helps Azerbaijan diversify its international partnerships and reduce over-reliance on any single power, thereby enhancing its strategic autonomy. The relationship is a testament to Azerbaijan's ability to forge strong bonds based on mutual benefit, even amidst complex regional rivalries. ### Navigating Regional Pressures: Turkey, Iran Despite the clear benefits, Azerbaijan's close ties with Israel come with significant risks, particularly from its powerful neighbor, Iran. Iran has frequently criticized Azerbaijan for its security and business ties with Israel, while Azerbaijan has accused Iran of interference and inflammatory rhetoric from Iranian religious figures. This tension occasionally flares into diplomatic spats or even more serious incidents. Furthermore, regional dynamics can shift quickly. For instance, pressure on Baku from Turkey over Gaza might soon disrupt the relationship. Turkey, a close ally of Azerbaijan, has taken a strong stance against Israel's actions in Gaza, creating a potential diplomatic tightrope for Baku. Azerbaijan must constantly weigh its alliances and adapt its foreign policy to avoid being caught in the crossfire of larger regional conflicts. The recent visits, such as Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian and Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev in a bilateral trade forum in Baku on April 28, 2025, followed by the Israeli prime minister's trip, highlights Baku’s sophisticated geopolitical maneuvering as Tehran and Tel Aviv vie for influence in the strategically vital South Caucasus.

Iran's Deep Concerns: A Growing Partnership

Iran views the strengthening ties between **Azerbaijan, Israel, and Iran** with profound concern. Tehran sees this partnership as a direct threat to its national security and regional influence. The strategic location of Azerbaijan, sharing a long border with Iran, makes any foreign military presence or intelligence activity there a significant worry for Iranian strategists. Iran is closely monitoring the strengthening ties between Israel and Azerbaijan and has expressed concern over what it sees as a growing strategic partnership. This concern is not merely rhetorical; it is rooted in a perceived encirclement by hostile powers, especially given Israel's stated objective of countering Iran's nuclear program and regional proxy networks. ### Criticism and Accusations Iranian media and officials frequently voice their displeasure with the Azerbaijan-Israel axis. Iran’s Fars News Agency, which is closely affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), launched an attack this week on Azerbaijan and Israel, using the Eurovision Song Contest as a pretext to criticize Baku's perceived secularism and pro-Western leanings. Such attacks are common, reflecting a deep ideological and geopolitical divide. Iran often accuses Azerbaijan of allowing its territory to be used for Israeli intelligence operations or as a staging ground for potential attacks against Iran. These accusations are met with strong denials from Baku, which insists on its sovereign right to forge its own foreign policy. The rhetoric from Iranian religious figures also often contributes to the inflammatory atmosphere, further straining relations. ### The Embassy Attack Incident The tensions between the two countries have been strained for years, largely due to Baku’s close ties with Iran’s archenemy, Israel, and a January 2023 attack on Azerbaijan’s embassy in Tehran. This incident, in which the head of security at the embassy was killed, significantly escalated diplomatic tensions, leading to the temporary closure of the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran. Azerbaijan deliberately delayed the opening of its embassy in Tel Aviv until March 2023, because it feared retaliation from neighboring Iran. This delay underscores the delicate balance Azerbaijan must maintain and the real fear of Iranian reprisal for its diplomatic choices. The attack served as a stark reminder of the volatility inherent in the relationship and the potential for incidents to quickly spiral out of control.

Tensions on the Border: A Dangerous Proximity

The geographical proximity of Azerbaijan to Iran's borders means that any heightened tensions between Iran and Israel can have immediate and visible consequences for Baku. By bne IntelliNews, tensions between Iran and Israel have reached a dangerous proximity to Azerbaijan’s borders, with multiple Israeli and Iranian missile launches reportedly visible from the Azerbaijani side. This creates an unsettling atmosphere and highlights the potential for unintended spillover from conflicts involving the two regional powers. The possibility of Israel having ties with "Southern Azerbaijan" (referring to Iran's Azeri-speaking regions), given the strong ties between northern Azerbaijan and Israel, is a particularly sensitive point for Tehran. Since we assume that Iran fears the independence of southern Azerbaijan and given the strong ties between northern Azerbaijan and Israel, why shouldn't Israel have ties with southern Azerbaijan? This rhetorical question from some analysts underscores a deeply rooted Iranian fear: that external powers might exploit ethnic divisions within its borders.

Baku as a Humanitarian Corridor: A Surprising Role

Despite the geopolitical tensions, Azerbaijan has also played a surprising and vital humanitarian role in recent conflicts. Since the start of the military escalation between Israel and Iran, more than 600 citizens of 17 countries have been evacuated from Iran via Azerbaijan, a government source told AFP. This highlights Azerbaijan's strategic importance as a transit hub and its willingness to facilitate humanitarian efforts, even amidst regional strife. The evacuees, who crossed the border via the Astara checkpoint, were being taken to the Baku airport and flown to their home countries on international flights. The Russian embassy in Tehran also confirmed that several hundred people had already left Iran via the Astara border crossing into Azerbaijan, including the families of those working in Iran, members of the Tchaikovsky Symphony Orchestra, and citizens from Belarus, Serbia, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan. This demonstrates Azerbaijan's role as a neutral ground for international humanitarian operations, a testament to its pragmatic foreign policy that prioritizes stability and international cooperation where possible.

Future Outlook: Diplomacy and Destabilization

The future of the **Azerbaijan, Israel, and Iran** dynamic remains uncertain, characterized by a delicate balance between diplomatic engagement and the potential for destabilization. While Azerbaijan seeks to maintain good relations with all its neighbors and partners, the fundamental strategic divergence between Israel and Iran means that Baku will continue to walk a tightrope. The ongoing military cooperation between Azerbaijan and Israel, coupled with Iran's deep-seated suspicions, ensures that this triangular relationship will remain a focal point of regional geopolitics. Any significant escalation between Iran and Israel, or internal instability within Iran, could profoundly impact Azerbaijan and the broader South Caucasus. The region is a geopolitical chessboard, and the moves made by Baku, Tel Aviv, and Tehran will continue to shape its future.

Conclusion: A Delicate Balance

The relationship between Azerbaijan, Israel, and Iran is a microcosm of the broader geopolitical struggles in the Middle East and Eurasia. It is a relationship defined by strategic imperatives, historical grievances, and a constant search for balance. For Israel, Azerbaijan is a vital partner in its efforts to counter Iran. For Azerbaijan, the alliance with Israel offers significant security and economic benefits, despite the risks it poses to its relationship with Iran. And for Iran, the growing ties between its northern neighbor and its arch-nemesis represent a profound security concern. As this complex dynamic continues to evolve, the world watches closely. The stability of the South Caucasus and, by extension, the wider region, hinges on the careful navigation of these intricate relationships. Understanding the nuances of **Azerbaijan, Israel, and Iran** is crucial for anyone seeking to comprehend the forces shaping the contemporary geopolitical landscape. What are your thoughts on this complex triangular relationship? Share your insights in the comments below, or explore our other articles on regional geopolitics to deepen your understanding of these critical global dynamics.